Saturday, August 12, 2017

How Global Warming should have worked

As I have stated on several occasions, the basic hypothesis of Anthropogenic Global Warming is fairly simple: the burning of fossil fuels, and following release of CO2 into the atmosphere, is likely to cause a quick and environmentally important increase of CO2 concentrations in the upper Troposphere.  It is generally conceded that CO2 plays little role at lower altitudes, where water vapor is the primary "retainer of heat energy", but it is also known that at higher altitudes it is the MAIN retainer of heat energy.

This concentration will lead in rapid order to vast increases in the temperatures in the upper Troposphere, which in turn will radiate downwards to the lower Troposphere, and ground level, causing widespread and rapid warming, which in turn will cause catastrophic weather events, rapid increases in ocean level. and possibly temperatures so high that human life will be difficult if not impossible.

It is a compelling story.  But if you look at the history of the thing, it consists nearly entirely in stories about what WILL happen if we don't act.  2007, I think it was, was going to be the worst hurricane year ever.  This was convenient, since it happened right after Katrina, which many--with absolutely no scientific basis--blamed on Global Warming.  Needless to say, they were wrong.

In the late 1990's, and as late as 2009--in the case of that relentless opportunist Albert Gore, Jr.--we were treated to the spectacle of an end to our current interglacial period, since all the ice on both poles was going to melt, and the Ice Ages would come to an abrupt and final end.  This, too, was wrong.

What SHOULD have happened, if actual science were involved, is that an on-going and well publicized watch should have been kept on the upper Troposphere, to see if there were any signs of rapid warming.  As I have said, the air up there is much thinner, so a LOT of warming is needed there, to have any effect on the much thicker air below.  An adjunct to this might have been watching the stratosphere, since rapid cooling is also part of the hypothesis, the idea being that if more heat is trapped lower down, the upper reaches of our atmosphere ought to cool rapidly as well.

I cannot emphasize enough that this whole thing really is a scientifically formatted hypothesis, one which makes clear predictions, which are reliably testable through reliable observations.

And this hypothesis has been falsified.  It is wrong.  There is indeed some warming in the upper Troposphere, and some cooling in the Stratosphere, but not nearly enough.

Irrespective of the "he said, she said" of the methods of the land based temperature gathering, THIS DATA SHOULD NOT BE GATHERED AT ALL.  We know that the Earth heats up and cools down for a variety of reasons, some of which we clearly don't understand.  That the people at the center of this fraud continue to use very questionable methods--ones fully unrelated and superfluous to the core hypothesis--should tell us all we need to know: they are trying to create an outcome which is unsupported in the place--the upper Troposphere--which really matters.

I am gratified to see Trump pull us out of the Paris Treaty, but I continue to wonder how the rest of the world is so fucking stupid.

Psychologically, many factors are likely at play.  I see often, for example, the claim that "even if they are wrong, humans are still destroying the Earth".  This may be true, but this claim needs to be debated on its own merits.  And in what respect should any sane person be willing to trust their freedom and well-being to a group of people who have already demonstrated a willingness to use the Big Lie to get what they want?

More commonly and likely, I think many people have an emotional commitment to this idea.  They see global peace and unity and goodwill coming from our shared efforts to combat a global threat.  On some level, they overcomplicate everything, to hide the failure of the idea.

I don't doubt there are many honest people involved in this, even if they are deluded.

But We the People need to start insisting that these assholes, who suck up so much money from the global economy, stop, shut up, and go home.

Yes, by all means keep an eye on atmospheric temperatures, but the gig is up.

Did you know 25% of all human CO2 production has happened since 2000, in an era, where the only net warming is happening in cooked land-based temperature models?  The poles are doing fine.

This idea needs to die.

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